China to overtake US as world's biggest economy by 2028
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) on Saturday said that China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028.
In an annual report published by think tank said that the COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favour, five years earlier than previously estimated.
The CEBR said China's "skillful management of the pandemic", with its strict early lockdown, and hits to long-term growth in the West meant China's relative economic performance had improved.
China looked set for average economic growth of 5.7% a year from 2021-25 before slowing to 4.5% a year from 2026-30 while the United States was likely to have a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow to 1.9% a year between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6% after that.
Japan would remain the world's third-biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it would be overtaken by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth.
The United Kingdom, currently the fifth-biggest economy by the CEBR's measure, would slip to sixth place from 2024.
It also said the pandemic's impact on the global economy was likely to show up in higher inflation, not slower growth.